EURUSD: A Rare Bearish Chart Pattern Emerges

EURUSD displays extra out of Diamond Top below 1.42 picture before landing at that has acted as well as significant inflationary and downside barrier, since the second half of 2008. [1] [2] This is a rare invoice cancellation formation that is preceded by a large-scale-typically found on the move down. Confirmation yet, at this stage, however, and the feature looks for the daily close to 1.3804 – steep Fib in advance of the September – 23.6%, in order to write a brief below. (I) will be applied to the aid originally included in the calculation of the resistance to 1.33, augusts ' swing is the top site at.

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USDJPY: (a) Bottom Taking Shape?

Last week the USDJPY Doji Candlestick chart showed each week are marked down poisjuoksuttamiseksi channel series April's swing high, and a larger one, which is specified in the price of the operation after the half of 2008, hinting, this may prove (at least) of the second corrective valuuttakurssijannitteet intercept key support site. The daily chart, it can be stated, we are now seen the Engulfing Candlestick settings in the lower reaches of the channel at the bottom of the pane to the strengthening of the upswing in the case of a seemingly. However, the opposition is 82 lahiajan. 86, in which the risk and the premium considerations argue against entering current levels for a long time, and we are still on the sidelines for now. Above this level reveals a break up small channel (now at 84.10) and the daily close above are handled as solid buy entry signal to allocate larger channel upper limit (now 93.27).

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EURUSD: enter the short as Markets Break Diamond Top

EURUSD displays the remove lower down rare Diamond Top ran out of the cancellation to introduce the invoice for the Dark Cloud Cover Candlestick pattern below 1.42 landing at that picture, as well as significant inflationary and downside barrier has worked since the second half of 2008. (I) enter a brief here (1. c(1998) 3840) originally targeting August at 1. swing top-3317. Stop-loss is activated on a daily basis when closing above 1.4085. This topic chart

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NZDUSD: Breakdown postponed, continue to be offset

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The currency of Japan Yen: the peak of the last will reach this week?

The currency of Japan Yen: the peak of the last will reach this week? Japan yen for fundamental perspective: the yen still a safe haven in the State of the world economy this week to benefit the uncertainty in the currency in the dictionary, but the Government start losing momentum, and the Central Bank to aim their economic stability, perform the steps that are required for. This deal is now their focus Japan move to determine the bank interest. Range is 0 to 0.1% in interest rates and the Central Bank of choice is running. Ahead of BoE and nonfarm employment FOMC rate decision, together with the country's exports are looking for in weight to continue strengthening currency, Japan Yen catalyst required for the next major version, you can. Current account surplus in Japan's overseas borrowing dependence by reducing the yen is considered to be a safe haven. It is an important attribute and once for the main economic stability, so the start of the rally of Yen safe haven appeal note; Yen will depreciate quickly. Consumer spending in the basic fundamentals deflation and weak labour market remains depressed level on the back. At the same time, companies in their employment so long uncertainty remains, household spending and instead saved will remain reluctant to continue to add. Consumer confidence in the area of the lowest level of them now at this year's since March, and downward pressure on consumer prices. This week, the world's third largest economy is relatively mild economic; However, this deal is the Japan Bank interest rate decision to place the spotlight. "Long term interest rates and additional currencies mitigations to improve various risk premium reduction to encourage." last month at the meeting of the Central Bank of 5 trillion yen, asset purchase program introduced this emergency stimulus 918 billion yen in September additional packages. This upcoming Conference in Switzerland, depending on the merchant credit overnight index swap policy makers rate 25 basis points will raise the price on the 0% chance. This assumption is that recently the annual inflation% 0 ~ 2% range climbs again until almost zero interest rate policy had promised to keep the exact Policy Board. Cash income and the labor not overlooked vehicle sales in the tap water but the FOMC, and you can determine the BOE rate Yen price action week to dictate Yen due to the fact that rally next week, some of the back of the major weaknesses of the economy. Price action, especially the USDJPY, taking a look at a pair of keys the level records of 79.70 80.00 low exposure to test a break below. The upside of risk covered 20-day SMA and we remain a clear break and positive United States based on the back of the close of this elevation or disadvantage until out more does not dominate. -MW

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New Zealand dollar risk trends, surrender of speculation is waiting for instructions.

John Kicklighter, currency strategy at October 30, 2008 at 04: 08: 00 GMT 2010 waiting for New Zealand dollar risk trends, surrender speculation of instructions

New Zealand dollar for fundamental perspective: in the middle of the New Zealand dollar to the end of this past week, very powerful. Consider this nothing to New Zealand's risk appetite and trends through the final 24 hours of trading was quite calm feat. This burst of life comes to the signal performance header? As it stands, the liquidity was depleted commodity currency or just before the important price development. Perhaps the most amazing sign of stress this year plus 2 dual 0.7650 's at the top of the retest of the NZDUSD. He is the only not yet Kiwi pair ready for operation. AUDNZD over this last week took the plunge 400 points; A five-week low fell EURNZD; And NZDJPY [NULL] is a very powerful for Japan Yen is pushing back. We respond to Australia New Zealand benchmarks and lower than the growth forecast decline and sovereign debt (even high yield sovereign debt) is the rate of return than the demand for lean more towards the emerging markets are very amazing when you consider this. Where any return probability-based, trading in the world of ' special ' and ' amazing ' attention is running. New Zealand dollar Japan Yen/dollar does not. We are a key means to break the resistance above and aggressive rally can carry through some material need a reason to believe. Itself, there's little do. this particular currency, the main attraction of the high rate of return line down the possibility of a higher rate of return. Humble RBNZ Manager Alan Bollard in his hawkish commentary stepped; But his incredible transparency to resemble a short hiking hints from nothing. Common risk appetite surge, likely in the near future if we get around this fact. In that case, FOMC, Japan Bank and perhaps the Bank of England is an extension of the stimulus efforts. However, he is probably the over-reaching predictions speculation. It's too easy to disappoint. Besides, the expansive taste for risk theory, the Australian dollar high yield and a big raise the probability of additional more because it would be helpful. New Zealand dollar's superior strength and star performer Australian dollar given the incredible performance, most likely a speculative high responsibility for driving. Speculation and market through powerful sway has been held; However, also held out for meaningful default handle very unstable. The Fed's interest rate decision of extensive risk appetite if you are not developing a bid and therefore we watch a sharp reversal from above the key.In the meantime, we will also release a long-term evaluation for a short term meaning as well as the growth rate expectations in the employment data reservation 3Q takes .-JK

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Sat Oct 30, 04: 08: 00 GMT 2010

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Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 11.01.10

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Japanese Yen level important 8090

bars 60 Minutes prepared by Jamie Saettele Rally with low is in the 5 waves, which strongly favours an upside. Deep second Correction waves may be approaching completion on important level (was support and resistance in the past few weeks). There is also a specter inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern (right arm forming now). Of course, the price must remain above low pattern will normally.

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Japanese Yen Threatening Extreme

By Jsaettele, 14: 33: 00 Fri Oct 29 GMT 2010 Daily bars

Prepared by Maybe Jamie Saettele proximity historically low USDJPY is simply too much to resist pair. I wrote yesterday, "Rally with low under the waves 5 that strongly favors additional growth of inflation. Deep second Correction waves may be approaching completion on important level (was support and resistance in the past few weeks). There is also a specter inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern (right arm forming now). "Fall below the 8080 negates the previously bullish evidence and decreases with the 8200 pulse now. \ 8110 is resistance.

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14: 33: 00 Pt Oct. 29 GMT 2010

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The British Pound Soars but Remains in the field of

By Jsaettele, Thu 28 October 15: 01: 00 GMT Daily bars 2010

Prepared by Jamie Saettele GBPUSD scope remains bound.However, the specter of the past top of the double has the potential to fall below at the forefront in the coming weeks 15294.190 is a potential point of pause.

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Thu 28 October 15: 01: 00 GMT 2010

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New Zealand Dollar, Australian dollar test range continues to Lag behind

Daily winners and losers Dollar New Zealand style drop from earlier this week to achieve high with 0.7556 Thursday, and high-yielding currencies may be continued to push higher throughout the day, investors to increase their risk appetite. NZD/USD is 90 points higher in day after moving to 105% of his average true range, but the kiwi Dollar may consolidate Asia session as relative 30-minute strengthen falls index from a high of 77. There may be possibility of weakening the intraday Rally after we see Paul goes with the territory overbought and course may default interval from 240-SMA in 0.7490 as couples still have narrow range carried over from the previous week. After the presentation of a limited response to the reserves of the decision, the rate of New Zealand yesterday, the meetings of the Committee of the Federal market opening planned for next week is likely to spark increased exchange rate fluctuations over the Fed quantitative investors extend to further mitigate and declarations of the decision, you can set the course for the future price action tonnes, as investors weigh prospects for monetary policy. As a result, we can result in lengthy, NZD/USD remains associated with the scope at the end of the week, but THE GDP report 3Q advanced for the United States may spark a sharp move in the exchange rate, as market participants expect the largest economy in the world, to expand the fastest pace during the three months through September. Key levels/indicators coming events trade balance (the New Zealand Dollar) balance (SEP) (YTD) (the New Zealand Dollar) (SEP) exports (the New Zealand Dollar) (SEP) imports (the New Zealand Dollar) (SEP), the Australian Dollar continued to lag behind the remainder by major currencies and remains the weakest currencies among major companies and aussie can consolidate transition in Asia trade as the prices of the shares does not have the above 20-day SMA to 0.9815. AUD/USD is nearly 70pips higher than open after you move the 0.1% of its ATR daily and Intraday rally may spiczasty throughout the day as the prices of the handles action below 240-SMA to 0.9821. As the aussie Dollar interruption from top testovani channel from August, with a 10-Day SMA (0.9816), NT $ crossing readiness to below 20-day 0.9814, contains the hotfix, the exchange rates may collect the momentum of the current transmit is strongly based on the last few weeks. As the AUD/USD retraces sharp rally may we steam again fall to 50-day SMA 0.9479 to short-term studies to support, but the recent momentum for the greenback may lead to large reversal going to November, the Dollar regains its rights against its major counterparts. As the prices of the shares does not have the above 10 and 20 day moving average, there are, of course, it seems the scope to the weakening of the Rally today as course maintains a narrow scope carried over from the previous week. Key levels/indicators coming events HIA New home sales (MOM) (SEP) private sector accounts (MOM) (SEP) private sector account (per annum) (SEP) join us to discuss the prospects for the major currencies on DailyFX forum for the discussion of this report, Contact David Song, analyst currencies: dsong@fxcm.com

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Australian Dollar 4th Wave Correction Remains Underway

Prepared daily Bars in Jamie Saettele I prefer the weakness of additional more complex adjustments (dual 3) to support the Elliott wave 4 channel to the full in advance wave 5 of may low. In the near term resistance is 9890.

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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

The intersection of currency: Technical Outlook long term trends and pivot points (monthly data) (updated on the first day of the month) medium term trends and pivot points (weekly) (updated every week) euro/British Pound Candles weekly prepared by Saettele Ewa EURGBP has plunged from its recent high and look at the weekly warns that high may not be exceeded at the moment. Price reversed, not only at the level of 100% of the add-on, but also in the line of resistance in the long term. This week ends as a key reversal and bearish engulfing pattern. Intraday oscylatory are diverging from the new low that warns about the transition back to 8775. EUR/bars weekly EURCAD Canadian dollar has been withdrawn just shy long cited level 14380 (100% extend Rally with 12446). Channel repair and extension of 100% are strong obstacles to additional profits. Paul weekly moving at 60, which typically is the upper limit for the pointer on the market bear. Paul discrepancies on daily prefers also dolewania scenario. Prepared by Jamie Saettele Euro/bars weekly Australian dollar prepared by Saettele Ewa EURAUD remains above its long-term channel for several weeks now cannot, however, to progress. As long as prices can sustain a break above 14380, EURAUD is compromised. In the case of weakness Watch 13920 support. With the EURGBP and EURCAD showing signs of weakness, consider the possibility of further weakness for EURAUD 5 wave direction 13240 (fal 5 = wave 1). EURO/Japanese Yen Prepared Daily strips Author Jamie Saettele EURJPY slipped below 11145, which leaves no Rally with low (41) in 3 waves (and probably wave And corrective pattern large). Expectations in the next few weeks and probably a month + are on the side/slowdown. 10960 is support for initial, then 10540. Remember that if a flat, and then all will be reconstructed marked decrease in waves Pound British b./Japanese Yen weekly bars prepared by Jamie Saettele Despite reversing this week, GBPJPY can operate lower still waves B triangle or a flat-rate basis. To review, a decrease from 16315 clearly is not signals, but it is not the rally with 11880. Triangle or a flat may be lasts from low January 2009. In both cases, the initial aim is likely 15500 (monthly key bolsters scenario bullish reversal). " Reason to challenge a leaning immediate potential is Rally wave EURJPY 3 and with an inability to maintain any kind of USDJPY rally is more than a few days. 130 is the potential of resistance at the beginning of next week. Canadian dollar/Japanese Yen prepared Daily bars by Jamie Saettele CADJPY lies just above the low August and decrease 9450 2 sides equal. However, only the traffic above the line of resistance will move the focus to the upside. Until that time, the price remains threatened. In 7840 will move the focus to the 7625, then 7500. Australian dollar/Japanese Yen Prepared Daily strips Author Jamie Saettele 7870 do not have so a higher thrust from the triangle may be full. Watch channel short-term resistance. Price per channel (and Paul included its trend) signal in accelerating the likely fall in 7500. Jamie Saettele publishes Technicals Daily on a daily basis the day of the week, the analysis of the COT (published Monday), technical analysis crosseson currency Wednesday and Friday (crosses of the euro and the yen) and intraday trading strategies in the market will operate on the DailyFX Forum. He is the author had in the market Forex. Follow its intraday market commentary and specialisation in DailyFX Forex stream. Send requests to the receipt of his reports via e-mail to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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Gold Completes Corrective Advance

bars 60 Minutes prepared by Jamie Saettele "decrease with highly impulsive indicates that a larger trend has reversed. Pop over 1350 meets the expectations of the wave 2 or b I prefer underrated. 1280 (objective c wave) is preliminary support for a break in 1315. As gold accelerates the lower USD should be visible to a sudden increase. Additional capacity in the near term should be visible for resistance to 1360 (61.8% Fibonacci).

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FX Technical Weekly 10-29

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By Jamie Saettele, Sr. Technical Strategist ?and? Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist Fri Oct 29 20:43:00 GMT 2010 EURO / US DOLLAR

Jamie: The EURUSD is in a topping phase, but a new high (however slight) cannot be ruled out (this sideways trading may be simply a 4th wave). “The beginning of a trend is usually not obvious and can be quite choppy. I know that the decline from the top is not in 5 waves but there are other patterns that can and do presage larger reversals (leading diagonal). A break below 13700 is needed in order to confirm a top. An alternate pattern is a 4th wave triangle.” Near term direction is unclear as there are impulsive moves in both directions. There is a potential diamond topping pattern, which is one of the more bearish patterns.

Joel: The market is in the process of rolling over and carving out what could be the right shoulder of a major head & shoulders top. Key neckline support comes in by 1.3695, and a break below will confirm reversal prospects and potentially open a material decline back towards a measured move objective by the 1.3300 area which also loosely coincides with the 50-Day SMA. The 10-Day SMA is also in the process of crossing the 20-Day SMA (bearish) for the first time since early September when the market was trading in the 1.2700’s. For now, look for any intraday rallies to be well capped ahead of 1.4000.

BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR

Jamie: The GBPUSD remains range bound. The specter of the recent double top with RSI divergence brings to the forefront the potential for a test of 15294 in the coming weeks. Trading above 16110 would shift focus to the trendline (triangle line?), which is at 16340 next week.

Joel: Rallies have been very well capped above psychological barriers at 1.6000 and the market has since stalled out and reversed course in favor of some consolidation. We retain a mild bearish bias at current levels and ultimately, only a close back above 1.6000 would negate outlook and give reason for pause. Setbacks have stalled out for now by the 50-Day SMA, and a close below the medium-term SMA should open the next down-leg towards 1.5300. Any intraday rallies should be well capped ahead of 1.6000.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR

Jamie: I favor additional weakness in a more complex correction (a double 3) towards the Elliott channel support line to complete wave 4 within the 5 wave advance from the May low. Near term resistance is 9890.

Joel: The market looks to have finally stalled out after reaching critical psychological barriers by parity. A bearish reversal week following 9 consecutive weekly positive closes gave us early warning signals for the onset of a major correction, and despite the surge above 0.9900 a few days back, we remained encouraged by the reversal prospects and continued to look to fade the rallies. Indeed the market stalled out ahead of the recently set post float record highs by parity, and from here, we look for a break back below 0.9650 to strengthen bearish outlook and accelerate declines. Any intraday rallies should be well capped ahead of 0.9850.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR / US DOLLAR

Jamie: A NZDUSD objective remains 7840, which is where the rally from 6945 would equal the rally from 6557 to 7402. Potential resistance before 7650 is 7600. I wrote yesterday that “the recent decline is clearly corrective and daily RSI has held 50, so 7650 is in danger.” Near term support is at 7600.

Joel: As per our commentary in previous days, gains have indeed stalled out above 0.7600 with the market reversing sharply to close back below the 10 and 20-Day SMAs. At this point, we look for a major medium-term top by 0.7645, in favor of additional declines over the coming days and weeks back towards the yearly lows by 0.6560. Next key support comes in by 0.7405, with any intraday rallies expected to be well capped below 0.7550 on a close basis. The 10-Day SMA has just crossed below the 20-Day SMA (bearish cross) for the first time since early September to further confirm bias.

US DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN

Jamie: Maybe the proximity of the all-time USDJPY low is just too much for the pair to resist. I wrote yesterday that “the rally from the low is in 5 waves which strongly favors additional upside. A deep second wave correction may be nearing completion at an important level (has been support and resistance the last few weeks). There is also the specter of an inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern (right shoulder forming now).” The drop below 8080 negates the previously bullish evidence and makes the decline from 8200 an impulse now. 8110 is resistance.

Joel: While we like the idea of the market establishing a major base by current levels over the medium and longer-term, short-term price action has still not confirmed any signs of a bottom, with the price action over the past few days more characteristic of a bearish consolidation ahead of the next drop towards the record lows. Ultimately, a close back above 82.00 will now be required to relieve downside pressures. However, we will be on the lookout for an opportunity to buy on dips below 79.75.

US DOLLAR / CANADIAN DOLLAR

Jamie: “There are 5 waves higher from 9975 and 3 waves lower from 10380. 5 waves denote the direction of the larger trend so look higher. An initial objective is the 100% extension at 10560.” A drop below 10150 would not negate the bullish outlook, only delay it. 10120 would then be support.

Joel: As expected, the market was very well supported on dips below parity, with the latest sharp bounce back above 1.0200 solidifying our constructive outlook and opening the door for significant gains over the coming weeks. Look for continued appreciation towards the multi-week highs by 1.0700 over the coming weeks, with only a break back below 0.9970 to ultimately negate outlook and give reason for concern. A higher low is now sought out in the 1.0100’s ahead of the next major upside extension to be confirmed on a break back above key short-term resistance at 1.0375.

US DOLLAR / SWISS FRANC

Jamie: A major low might be in place at 9460 (remember that 9460 was a 100% extension on long term charts). The structure of the rally is not clear but a well defined channel has taken shape and a Fibonacci confluence is at 10050 (probable resistance). Watch the channel for support as well as 9765 (Fibonacci).

Joel: With daily studies finally crossing up from oversold and the market managing to close back above the 20-Day SMA for the first time since August, we are encouraged with the prospects for the formation of a major base by the recently established record lows at 0.9460. From here, look for any intraday setbacks to be well supported on dips towards 0.9700, with the market now eying a move towards next key resistance by 1.0000 over the coming sessions. Last week’s inability to extend declines to yet another record low below 0.9460, set up a strong bullish reversal week to end a sequence of 9 consecutive weekly lower highs. This further strengthens our constructive outlook and over the medium and longer-term we see significant upside risk. The market is now looking to establish back above the 50-Day SMA for the first time since mid-June.

EURO / JAPANESE YEN

Jamie: The EURJPY slipped below 11145, which leaves the rally from the low (10541) in 3 waves (and probably wave A of a large corrective pattern). Expectations over the next several weeks and probably month + are for sideways / downside action. 10960 is initial support, followed by 10540. Keep in mind that if a flat is underway, then the entire decline will be retraced in wave B.

Joel: The market has done a very good job of holding above the daily Ichimoku cloud to suggest that we could be on the verge of a material shift in the structure in favor of significant upside over the medium and longer-term. Daily studies are however in the process of unwinding from stretched levels, so the preferred strategy is to look to buy into dips rather than on upside breaks. A good level to look to establish a long position now comes in by previous resistance turned support in the form of the daily Ichimoku cloud top (currently by 110.00).

BRITISH POUND / JAPANESE YEN

Jamie: Despite this week’s reversal, the GBPJPY may work lower still in wave B of a triangle or flat. To review, the drop from 16315 is clearly not an impulse but neither is the rally from 11880. A triangle or flat may be underway here from the January 2009 low. In either case, an initial objective is probably 15500 (the monthly key reversal bolsters this bullish outlook).” The reason to question the immediate upside potential is the EURJPY 3 wave rally and the inability of the USDJPY to sustain any sort of rally for more than a few days. 130 is potential resistance early next week.

Joel: A closer look at Ichimoku studies suggests that we are still very much in downtrend, with the market most recently breaking to fresh 2010 lows by 126.45. However, as mentioned in previous commentary, daily studies were looking quite stretched, and despite the break to fresh yearly lows, the latest sharp bounce suggests that overall, the market is very well supported in the 126.00’s on a medium-term basis. From here, we would not at all be surprised to see additional upside towards 135.00, but we prefer to remain sidelined given what is still an overwhelmingly bearish trend.

EURO / BRITISH POUND

Jamie: The EURGBP has plunged from its recent high and a look at the weekly warns that the high may not be exceeded for a while. Price reversed not only at the 100% extension level but also at a long term resistance line. This week will end as a key reversal and bearish engulfing pattern. Intraday oscillators are divergent with the new low which warns of a move back to 8775.

Joel: The latest impressive multi-week rally could finally be at an end, with the market stalling out perfectly by some major falling trend-line resistance off of the record highs from 2008 and reversing sharply to put in a bearish week. From here the risks are for additional declines over the medium-term with sights set on a move to fresh yearly lows by critical psychological barriers at 0.8000. Ultimately, only back above 0.9000 would negate and give reason for concern.

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Fri Oct 29 20:43:00 GMT 2010

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